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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 2:33:36 PM
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letusreason
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I wonder if this isn't a trend of the media's poll antics.
What did Kerry do this time in 2004? Wasn't it the same?
Because i have been reading from low key sources that McCain camp says they see themselves ahead in places like Iowa and Minnesota when the mass majority in media says otherwise.
So is this a MSM scheme?
Your democratic candidate opens a big lead in the weeks remaining to discourage the republicans, then as E-Day draws near they tighten, neck-and-neck, thus encouraging the typical non-voting democrats to get off their lazy butts and vote to keep their candidate in the lead.
Then announce your democratic leader as having won to make republican voters in FL. panhandle give up and go home without voting.
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 7:35:17 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
ORIGINAL: letusreason
I wonder if this isn't a trend of the media's poll antics.
What did Kerry do this time in 2004? Wasn't it the same?
Because i have been reading from low key sources that McCain camp says they see themselves ahead in places like Iowa and Minnesota when the mass majority in media says otherwise.
So is this a MSM scheme?
Your democratic candidate opens a big lead in the weeks remaining to discourage the republicans, then as E-Day draws near they tighten, neck-and-neck, thus encouraging the typical non-voting democrats to get off their lazy butts and vote to keep their candidate in the lead.
Then announce your democratic leader as having won to make republican voters in FL. panhandle give up and go home without voting.
You may have a very good point here. In the first week of October Kerry miraculously took the lead in the polls, he went from being 11 points down to leading by 2:
Newsweek's post-convention poll had Bush leading among registered voters 54 percent to 43 percent. Its post-debate poll had 47 percent choosing Kerry-Edwards, and 45 percent for Bush-Cheney. Two percent said they would vote for Ralph Nader and his running mate, Peter Camejo.
Bush post-convention lead 'erased'
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 7:41:52 PM
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todd_t
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quote:
You may have a very good point here. In the first week of October Kerry miraculously took the lead in the polls, he went from being 11 points down to leading by 2
Because the undecideds came home to roost.
National polls like these are another good reason why they should be taken with a block of salt.
Although I don't live and die by them, I prefer keeping an eye on state polling to get a better idea of current voter trends.
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 10:11:03 PM
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letusreason
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t
quote:
You may have a very good point here. In the first week of October Kerry miraculously took the lead in the polls, he went from being 11 points down to leading by 2
Because the undecideds came home to roost.
National polls like these are another good reason why they should be taken with a block of salt.
Although I don't live and die by them, I prefer keeping an eye on state polling to get a better idea of current voter trends.
Well then the pattern would be , according to you, that the undecideds tend to gravitate towards the republicans in the final days.
I wouldn't necessarily say that but it seems that's what you just said.
There is definately a pattern however.
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 10:22:23 PM
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todd_t
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quote:
Well then the pattern would be , according to you, that the undecideds tend to gravitate towards the republicans in the final days.
I never said that undecideds habitually flock to Republicans during the home stretch of election years. I said that Bush rec'd such benefits in 2004.
This year is a different year with different candidates.
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In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 10:25:50 PM
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Dubya
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From what I understand, many of the polls include a larger number of democrats than republicans, often by a large margin. The reasoning is that there are a larger number of registered democrats and they are "trying" to get a proportionate sample of the electorate.
Seems to me, if they were consistently wrong over the past few elections they may want to "fine tune" their ratio of dems to reps. (that is, of course, if they are trying to be statistically honest and not trying to influence the election).
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 10:40:08 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Dubya
From what I understand, many of the polls include a larger number of democrats than republicans, often by a large margin. The reasoning is that there are a larger number of registered democrats and they are "trying" to get a proportionate sample of the electorate.
Seems to me, if they were consistently wrong over the past few elections they may want to "fine tune" their ratio of dems to reps. (that is, of course, if they are trying to be statistically honest and not trying to influence the election).
I was curious about this. So the poll numbers are related to voter registration if I understand you correctly.
Are you saying that they weigh the poll numbers heavier towards one party or the other based on the number of registered voters in that party?
The reason I ask is because of a question I raised in another thread concerning ACORN. It appears that as the number of fraudulent voter registrations increased so did Obama's polling numbers.
If these numbers weigh heavier for a party with larger registration numbers then this would make sense. It would also give light into why they would do this since they know that no one would be able to vote under the name of Cinderella or Micky Mouse.
If they can drive up the number of registered voters, thereby affecting the poll numbers they can attempt to discourage voters from casting a ballot, they can swing popular opinion of undecideds and generally attempt to affect the outcome of the election.
I know, I know, just another "Conspiracy Theory". 
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/10/2008 11:19:44 PM
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ManimalX
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Not a conspiracy theory at all, just normal dirty politics. I for one wonder about all of the "Operation Chaos" agents still registered as Democrats. Do you think they throw off the polling at all?
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 12:28:11 PM
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Psalms274
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Dubya
From what I understand, many of the polls include a larger number of democrats than republicans, often by a large margin. The reasoning is that there are a larger number of registered democrats and they are "trying" to get a proportionate sample of the electorate.
Seems to me, if they were consistently wrong over the past few elections they may want to "fine tune" their ratio of dems to reps. (that is, of course, if they are trying to be statistically honest and not trying to influence the election).
I was looking at the gallup polls yesterday. They said that Obama was ahead 51 to McCain's 41. But if you look at the gender breakdown, Obama is ahead for women 53 to McCain's 39 and McCain is ahead for the men, 47% to Obama's 45%.
If there were equal numbers of men and women for Obama you would have the 53 plus the 45 divided by 2 which would be 44 ... and for McCain the 39 plus 47 divided by 2 to give him 43%. So based one their gender breakdown, if half the respondants were men and half were women, the race would be Obama 44% to McCain 43%. They are obviously polling a significantly greater number of women than men ... and I am not sure that those numbers will reflect how it pans out on election day.
Clear as mud huh?
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 1:59:49 PM
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rcjames
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quote:
ORIGINAL: letusreason
What did Kerry do this time in 2004? Wasn't it the same?
Yes Kerry was ahead for the whole month of October in 2004, on OCT 12 He was averaging about 5 points up.
Thanks
RC
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 4:41:58 PM
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letusreason
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deja vous all over again.
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 6:05:45 PM
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todd_t
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quote:
Yes Kerry was ahead for the whole month of October in 2004, on OCT 12 He was averaging about 5 points up.
And Obama is averaging 10 points up this month.
I'm not saying Obama has anything locked up, but he's got to feel better than McCain right now regarding his position in national and state polling.
_____________________________
In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 8:07:59 PM
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earthless
Posts: 6274
Joined: 4/11/2005
From: where pigeons are wearing sweaters....
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Dubya
From what I understand, many of the polls include a larger number of democrats than republicans, often by a large margin. The reasoning is that there are a larger number of registered democrats and they are "trying" to get a proportionate sample of the electorate.
Seems to me, if they were consistently wrong over the past few elections they may want to "fine tune" their ratio of dems to reps. (that is, of course, if they are trying to be statistically honest and not trying to influence the election).
All I know is that not me or anyone I know, no one.. is ever polled.
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Probing Today's Religious Movements | Promoting Doctrinal Discernment & Critical Thinking | Providing Reasons for Christian Faith & Ethics
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 8:30:59 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t
quote:
Yes Kerry was ahead for the whole month of October in 2004, on OCT 12 He was averaging about 5 points up.
And Obama is averaging 10 points up this month.
I'm not saying Obama has anything locked up, but he's got to feel better than McCain right now regarding his position in national and state polling.
Yeah, and in the primaries there were several states that the polls had Obama leading in but Hillary ended up winning.
Also in the primaries the polls had McCain all but out of it, but now look who the nominee is.
I don't trust the polls; never did, never will.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 10:12:31 PM
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letusreason
Posts: 833
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t
quote:
Yes Kerry was ahead for the whole month of October in 2004, on OCT 12 He was averaging about 5 points up.
And Obama is averaging 10 points up this month.
I'm not saying Obama has anything locked up, but he's got to feel better than McCain right now regarding his position in national and state polling.
As Gore was feeling better in 2000 and Kerry was in 2004.
The song remains the same.
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 11:02:59 PM
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todd_t
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Joined: 6/21/2006
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quote:
Yeah, and in the primaries there were several states that the polls had Obama leading in but Hillary ended up winning.
The only state that comes to mind where that occurred is NH.
In every other Dem primary this year, the polling leader (Obama or Hillary) inevitably won that state.
_____________________________
In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: Gore opens significant lead - 10/11/2008 11:05:45 PM
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todd_t
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From: The North Woods
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quote:
As Gore was feeling better in 2000 and Kerry was in 2004. The song remains the same.
In 2006, congressional polling steadily leaned heavily in favor of Democrats (despite Karl Rove claiming the opposite), and they whomped the GOP that year.
I'm still not making any assumptions this cycle, however.
_____________________________
In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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